March 12th, 2009
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Auto Club 500—California Fantasy NASCAR Picks
February 21st, 2009
Here is my preview of my Yahoo Fantasy NASCAR selections for the Auto Club 500.
A List: Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards
RUNDOWN: I will be starting Jimmie Johnson this week. Coupled with his second place qualifying effort and strong practice sessions, this guy has to be the odds-on favorite. Edwards has not impressed thus far this weekend, but he should still have a strong finish this weekend.
B List: Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart
RUNDOWN: Going with Busch and Hamlin. Kahne has had past success on the track, but his car looks extremely unstable this race weekend in the practice sessions. Stewart is too good of a driver to use a mediocre start on. Busch has looked good in practice—the top Dodge in the field, from the practice times. Hamlin has been nothing special, but his times are similar to Stewart’s, and they both have had about the same amount of success.
C List: Bobby Labonte, AJ Allmendinger
RUNDOWN: Starting Allmendinger. Labonte has been very average and was more of an insurance policy. Allmendinger qualified well, and his car looks extremely fast. He had a strong race last year in the second Fontana race, so it makes sense to start him.
Good luck this weekend in your Fantasy NASCAR pool!
SportsJudge has a great detailed preview of the race weekend.
Fantasy Fallout: Jason Isringhausen and Adam Kennedy Sign with Rays
February 21st, 2009
The Tampa Bay Rays acquired two former St. Louis Cardinals players in Jason Isringhausen and Adam Kennedy.
Jason Isringhausen, the former closer for the Cardinals, agreed to terms on a minor-league deal.
Adam Kennedy, the disgruntled second baseman who was released about a week ago, also agreed to terms on a minor-league deal.
So what, if anything, will Isringhausen and Kennedy bring to the Tampa Bay Rays? From a fantasy baseball perspective, it doesn’t really look like much.
Simply put, Jason Isringhausen was done four years ago, but he managed to find extremely good luck in his final numbers. From 2005 to 2008, Isringhausen failed to record a K/BB ratio of above 2.0. This makes his season ending numbers in each of those seasons very impressive, at least from 2005-2007.
His luck finally ran out last season, but his surface stats in K/9 and BB/9 ratios were strikingly similar to those of past seasons. Isringhausen is done—he will not contribute to the Rays in 2009 in any positive or meaningful way.
Adam Kennedy could end up being a decent middle infield option for the Rays. He rebounded nicely in batting average last season, but this was expected, considering that his bat contract rate was actually higher in 2007 (88%) than 2008 (87%). If he ever became a full time player for the Rays, you could look for 100 runs, 10+ steals, and a batting average around .285. However, Kennedy does not have any power left, and he won’t drive in a ton of runs.
More than likely, he will play a part-time role on the club, or may not make it up at all. If he plays well in spring training and gets a part-time role, he could be a solid option in a deep league. Tampa Bay probably sees the signing as a defensive-first signing anyway, but they could be pleasantly surprised at Kennedy’s contact bat.
Other Links:
5 o’clock blogger wishes Isringhausen well.
Splitting Seeds says to not forget Grant Balfour in the TB closing situation.
DRaysBay says there is nothing to lose on signing Adam Kennedy to a minor league deal.
Fantasy Fallout: Brian Roberts Signs Extension with Baltimore Orioles
February 20th, 2009
Brian Roberts agreed to terms today with the Baltimore Orioles on a four-year extension worth $40 million dollars.
Credit: Rich Anderson (Flickr)
I have to hand it to Roberts—not many players in today’s day and age would stick around with losing organizations. Apparently, Brian Roberts has other ideas. In fact, he stated today that he wants to remain with one organization for his entire career, if at all possible. During Friday’s news conference, Roberts brought up the name of Cal Ripken Jr.
Brian, I hate to break it to you, but you will never come close to the greatness of Cal Ripken. However, it is truly admirable that you aspire to that kind of greatness.
The hard part for me to grasp is that Brian Roberts is clearly among the top lead-off batters in today’s game. Why wouldn’t he want to keep his options open, and sign on with a winning organization at the end of his current contract? His actions go against the grain, and I am sure many fans are in the same boat with me.
From a fantasy standpoint, Brian Roberts offers a lot for owners who decide to fill their second base position with his name. At the age of 31, he is clearly no spring chicken. However, his numbers are encouraging.
Generally, Roberts has been light on the power, but immensely helpful in the runs, stolen bases, and batting average categories. The Baltimore Orioles do not have a terribly bad lineup, so he should remain fairly productive batting at the top of the lineup.
Roberts should be able to post slightly above 100 runs and 35 stolen bases, making him a valuable commodity alone. His batting average will probably be closer to .290 than .300, but it certainly also qualifies as an asset to any fantasy baseball team. Look for Roberts to short out on the power category (anywhere from 6-12 home runs), as well as the RBI numbers (50-60).
He is a rock-solid choice this year for your second base position, and is a true leader on the Baltimore Orioles. Pick him up as the third or fourth second baseman off the board, and you will be good to go.
Other Links:
Splitting Seeds loves the signing by the Orioles.
Camden Chat has a point-counterpoint up.
Four Reasons Why Dale Earnhardt Jr. Is Ridiculously Overrated
February 17th, 2009
After watching the Daytona 500 this past Sunday, I am sick of how much press and attention that Dale Earnhardt Jr. is receiving. Earnhardt Jr. is NASCAR’s most overrated driver, and here are four reasons why.
Credit: KaseyKahneFan (Wikimedia Commons)
1. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the son of Dale Earnhardt Sr.
If that couldn’t get any more obvious, let me explain myself. Dale Earnhardt Sr. was one of the most successful drivers of all time, and the “3″ car had an extremely dedicated fanbase. Naturally, his son would feed off of the enormous fanbase and attention, especially after Earnhardt Sr. passed away at Daytona.
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. drives for Hendrick Motorsports, the consensus top team in NASCAR.
Sure, he made a massive career move when he moved to Hendrick Motorsports from his own team. Hendrick’s drivers are very talented—Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Mark Martin have all found incredible success over the course of their careers.
Earnhardt Jr., however, has not finished very well in the final points standings over the course of his career. Since 1999, Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top five in points just three times. Five of those years, he ended up outside of the top ten in points.
Just because he drives for Hendrick doesn’t mean that his results will improve. In 2007 and 2008, there has been no significant improvement in his finishes (16th and 12th in points).
3. People don’t understand why Hendrick signed this guy in the first place.
Earnhardt Jr. was signed to replace Kyle Busch, who left for Joe Gibbs Racing. However, there is little doubt in my mind on who the better driver is of the two.
Hendrick signed this guy for money and marketing…nothing else. Earnhardt Jr. has marketability, but so does Michael Waltrip. And we all know how he has performed in recent years. If Hendrick honestly wanted to keep the better driver, they would have kept Busch on board.
4. He makes dumb, rookie mistakes, and tends to overreact when the media gets on his back.
If Daytona was any indication, Dale Earnhardt Jr. still makes a lot of dumb moves on the racetrack. He missed his pitstop, overreacted when he was penalized, and eventually spun out Brian Vickers, starting “The Big One.” He struggles to keep his emotions in check, and he will continue to struggle with results if he keeps making dumb mistakes.
In conclusion, Earnhardt Jr. is NASCAR’s most overrated driver on the Sprint Cup circuit.
Three Reasons Why Steven Threet Will Continue to Struggle, Despite a Transfer
February 16th, 2009
As you may or may not have heard, Michigan Wolverines QB Steven Threet has announced that he will transfer out of the University of Michigan.
Credit: jmccaskey (Blogspot)
Threet had a pretty tough year at the U-M last year, and I expect his struggles to continue, regardless of where he ends up going to school.
1. The guy is simply a raw passer, who has been shell-shocked from an extremely poor starting year.
Let’s face it—Threet is not an accomplished passer. He struggled mightily leading the Wolverines in 2008, and there was nothing about his performance near the end of the season that would lead anyone to believe that he took a massive step forward. Transferring to another school, regardless of the system, essentially sets him back another year. More likely than not, he will have to learn a new offense, and this will limit the chances he will get to focus on his passing skills 100%.
2. There is no guarantee he will have the necessary surrounding cast to find success.
Michigan was a pretty darn bad supporting cast in 2008, but what makes him think that he will have the pieces he needs around him to find success at the collegiate level? If Threet somehow breaks through from a skills perspective, he may not post the stats that would justify the improvements he made as an individual player.
3. He is not guaranteed a starting position, even after (presumably) sitting out one season.
If Threet went to another major Division I school, he would sit out a year due to NCAA rules. But what makes him think that he would ever get a true chance to start again? Recruiting differs from year to year, and Threet could end up in a similar quarterback jam at another school. Meanwhile, if he transferred to a D-I subdivision school, the question of a surrounding cast undoubtedly arises.
All in all, Threet will continue to have trouble, even if he decides to follow through with his transfer out of Michigan.
Check out what other Michigan bloggers believe.
2009 Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing Weekly Picks
February 16th, 2009
Over the course of the entire 2009 NASCAR season, I will be providing my weekly picks for the Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing Game. These picks can be accessed from the top bar of the website, “Fantasy Racing Picks.” Though you may not always want to use my selections, it can definitely provide more insight in picking your weekly roster.
Credit: emmenegger (Wikimedia Commons)
Insight into my picks will be posted on or around Wednesday or Thursday of every race week, certainly before qualifying. If you have any questions with regard to my rationale of my picks, or would just like advice for your own team, please feel free to shoot me an email at forrestk@gmail.com. I will be happy to help you out!
Matt Kenseth Wins Rain-Shortened Daytona 500 (Fantasy NASCAR Review)
February 15th, 2009
Matt Kenseth was able to take the rain-shortened 2009 Daytona 500, and he did it in a quiet, thrilling style.
Credit: Mike D (Wikimedia Commons)
While Kenseth seemed to fade into the Daytona 500 background, he stayed up near the front of the pack all day long. He avoided the Dale Earnhardt, Jr. induced wreck on Brian Vickers, and passed Elliott Sadler near the end. Kevin Harvick and AJ Allmendinger followed him in the draft.
It is a great win for Kenseth, who I really like. Sure, it’s true that he isn’t the most outspoken driver in NASCAR, but he does a great job at consistently finishing well. He did not have a win last season, so to kick off his season with a Daytona 500 win has to be incredibly encouraging for him.
My fantasy NASCAR team had an impressive start to the season. Here are my drivers and their outcomes!
A List:
Jeff Gordon - Finished 13th
Kyle Busch (BENCH) - Finished 41st
B List:
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Finished 27th
Tony Stewart - Finished 8th
Kurt Busch (BENCH) - Finished 10th
Denny Hamlin (BENCH) - Finished 26th
C List:
Bobby Labonte - Finished 22nd
Aric Almirola (BENCH) - Finished 30th
In hindsight, I was pleased with who I had started. In the A-List, Kyle Busch was actually going to start for me, until I made the switch about one hour prior to the race. Seeing that he was involved in a crash, this turned out to be the right decision.
The B-List had a lot of great choices this week, and I was 100% confident in starting both Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Tony Stewart. It blows my mind that Tony Stewart is a B driver this season, so I think I need to be extremely careful on where I utilize him this season, as I will most certainly be using him all nine times. Earnhardt was a favorite at Daytona, but a crash took him out of the top ten.
The C-List was hard to figure out this week, but there seemed to be a lot of good choices after seeing the final race outcome. I am glad I chose Labonte, but Almirola was a highly intriguing choice. Almirola spun out and had more problems than Labonte today, so I am glad I took the safer option in Labonte.
Check back at Forrest’s Fanatics for a ton of great Fantasy NASCAR/Fantasy Racing Material.
Props to Fantasy Nascar Preview and Fantasy Sports Outlook for helping me out with my Daytona 500 lineup this week.
Wolverines and Cocks.
November 22nd, 2008
So I have to admit, I had an absolute blast today at the Michigan-OSU game. OK, so I put off buying a ticket until the day before the game, but ohh man, was it worth it. I found a ticket for 60 bucks and picked it up…but the excitement didn’t completely mount until I saw the stadium today. The tailgating, the program vendors, the two Michigan fans in a sea of red…you can’t imagine the excitement surrounding such a lopsided matchup.
There were two girls dressed in rooster costumes wearing buckeye jerseys about three rows in front of me, and they were drinking their fair share of Natty Light and taking in the game. Their reason for wearing the suits? “Because Michigan Wolverines are cocksuckers,” they said. You have to be pretty drunk to find that kind of creativity.
I was actually more excited for this game than the Penn State game. Can’t really explain why, but it’s just the rivalry. Sure, Michigan knew that they would struggle mightily, and everyone knew this one wouldn’t be close. But it’s MICHIGAN-OHIO STATE. The best rivalry there is on earth.
And how about Oklahoma just bashing Texas Tech? I mean, this game was almost as bad as The Citadel-Florida. Texas Tech, despite beating Texas, should not be in the Top 5, much less ranked #2. They weren’t ready to play, and I worry about their ability to play in the spotlight when bowl season comes around. If you had to ask me, I still think Texas is the best out of the Big 12, but Oklahoma sure will be hyped up like no other come Monday.
Found a great post regarding the BCS and it’s Ultimate Doomsday Scenario. Take a read if you have some free time.
What a fun day: there hasn’t been a day with so much sports fun like that in a while. I love going to Ohio State, and honestly, who wouldn’t. Congrats to Joe Pa and Penn State for going Rose Bowling…they were clearly a better team this year. In the big scheme of things though, who cares about Penn State tonight…we beat Michigan and quite frankly that’s all that people care about right now!
2008 World Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
October 21st, 2008
The Tampa Bay Rays have made their way to the 2008 World Series, and it has been done in absolute storybook fashion. They won the talented American League East Division, which consisted of two of the richest franchises in all of sports, the New York Yankees and the defending World Series Champion, Boston Red Sox. In addition, they also got past a tough mid-pack Toronto Blue Jays team, and a lowly-but-upset-worthy Baltimore Orioles ballclub. After a year filled with drama and key injuries to players at the seemingly worst times, they have punched their ticket to one of the most exciting fall classics in recent memory.
Tampa Bay Lineup Rundown
Catcher - Dioner Navarro: The former Yankees top prospect has been stellar behind the plate for the Rays, and he has also delivered for the lineup as well. Navarro hit .295 with 7 home runs for the Rays during the regular season, and turned into one of the league’s best young catchers.
First Base - Carlos Pena: After failing to make clubs like the Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, and New York Yankees, Pena caught on with the Rays and turned in a stellar season. Though he only batted .247 on the year, he was the main source of power on this power/speed hybrid lineup, contributing 31 home runs. He also drove in a significant amount of runs, with 102 RBI on the year. Pena is a reliable mid-lineup bat who should drive Philadelphia pitchers crazy when he hits a tater or two.
Second Base - Akinori “Aki” Iwamura: Iwamura was brought over from Japan to solidify the Rays middle-infield, and he has certainly done his part. Aki led the team in at-bats, and led the team in runs (91), providing a stable force at the top of the Rays lineup. Despite not being the flashiest player, Aki knows exactly what he needs to do: get on base so the big bats in this lineup can drive him in.
Third Base - Evan Longoria: The top prospect on this Rays ballclub, Longoria broke through with a massive statistical year, providing 27 home runs and an above average .272 batting average. He was injured for a bit of the season, however, so his statistical numbers could have been even better. Longoria has obviously been one of the biggest contributors to Tampa’s postseason success: keep a close eye on him as he is the main driving force behind Tampa’s ability to generate offense.
Shortstop - Jason Bartlett: Trading away Delmon Young and middle infielder Brendan Harris didn’t seem like the best idea on first glance, but Bartlett has done just as much as Harris, just in different statistical categories. With a .286 batting average and 20 stolen bases, Bartlett is one of the more underrated offensive players on this Rays ballclub. The guy obviously doesn’t hit for power, but the team appreciates his consistent batting style of play and his grittiness. Bartlett normally hits 9th for the Rays.
Left Field - Carl Crawford: The longest tenured Ray on the roster, Crawford has matured quickly and taken to his veteran role on the young club. As a whole, Crawford did not have that impressive of a statistical year, but it was still solid. Part of the reason of this is due to injuries, but his .273 batting average and 25 stolen bases certainly contributed in their own way. Many fantasy baseball owners were expecting Crawford’s power to improve, but it regressed this year (8 HRs).
Center Field - BJ Upton: Another former top prospect on the Rays roster, Upton is merely a carbon copy of Crawford, with more speed. Upton has a better batting eye than Crawford, but also strikes out fairly often. On the season, Upton was successful on 44 out of 60 stealing chances, and his speed will undoubtedly affect the outcome of this postseason for Tampa.
Right Field - Gabe Gross: A pickup from the Milwaukee Brewers earlier on in the season, Gross has provided a decent amount of power (13 HRs), but his batting average is still well below replacement level. Gross does get on base more often than Crawford and Bartlett, however, so he is pretty darn good for a weak cog in the lineup.
Designated Hitter - Cliff Floyd: Who would have thought that Floyd would have responded with the kind of offensive season that he has? It won’t knock your socks off, but Floyd has hit .268 with 11 home runs on the season: not bad for a player who merely DHs and can’t play defense.
Rotation Breakdown
Scott Kazmir: Kazmir was injured during the course of the season, and stumbled a bit coming into the playoffs, but this guy can certainly pitch at a high level. The Rays have been dependent on this guy since he came over from the New York Mets in the lopsided Victor Zambrano deal. Kazmir strikes out batters like nobody’s business, and should find continued success as he starts off Game 1 for the Rays this year.
James Shields: Arguably the best pitcher on the Rays, Shields led all pitchers on the Rays with 215 innings pitched on the year. His K-BB ratio was better than Kazmir, coming in at 160-40. He was 14-8 with a 3.56 ERA on the year. Shields is solid and a great #2 behind Scott Kazmir.
Matt Garza: Also involved in the Delmon Young deal, Garza has matured quickly into one of the league’s best young pitchers. He had a 3.70 ERA on the year with a 128-59 K/BB ratio. In addition, Garza also pitched a fantastic game in Game 7 of the ALCS. Look for Garza to also find success pitching against the Phillies in the World Series.Andy Sonnanstine: Sonnanstine is purely a control artist, but he can dominate in style at times. He only walked 37 batters in 193.1 innings pitched, which is a stellar number. “Sonny” should be pitching in this series as well, and is a stellar option as a fourth starter: he would be #3 or #2 on most other teams.
Bullpen Breakdown
JP Howell: Howell quickly evolved into one of the league’s best long relief guys, acquiring a 6-1 record with a 2.22 ERA on the year. Howell pitched some big innings for the team in the playoffs so far, and he is great for 6th and 7th inning duties. I expect Howell to do a great job against the Philly hitters.
Dan Wheeler: Wheeler had been solid for the Rays up until the ALCS, where he contributed to one of the biggest playoff game collapses of all time. There’s no denying his skills though: he was 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA on the season.
Grant Balfour: The former Minnesota Twin had even better in-season numbers than Wheeler, but he has not played well in this year’s playoffs. Balfour’s role may be reduced in the World Series, because it appears as if he is struggling with his control.
David Price: The Rays secret weapon is going to be used early and often in this series, but not necessarily in the closer’s role. Look for the former #1 overall pick to have a significant impact from here on out. I think Price may be as good, if not better, than Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees. Watch out for his killer fastball and lots of baffled Philadelphia hitters.